Will Old-Fashioned Shoe Leather Plus Fancy Mathematics Ensure An Accurate Census Count For Tucson?
By Dave Devine
THE U.S. Constitution mandates that every 10 years a census
be conducted which counts "the whole number of persons in
each State." But in a country approaching 300 million people,
or even in a city the size of Tucson, is that realistic?
For decades some cities have complained the census undercounts
their populations. These complaints are especially important because
decisions on the distribution of huge sums of federal tax dollars,
along with Congressional apportionment, are made based on local
population figures.
These complaining communities usually have large minority populations,
which traditionally have been less likely to participate. They
also rank high in the number of homeless people, who are difficult
to count, and host high numbers of people in the country illegally
who are often afraid to be counted.
Tucson, of course, could be the poster child for these communities.
It has all of these populations in large numbers and thus has
a big stake in how Census 2000 will be conducted.
The U.S. Census Bureau believes it can reliably count up to 90
percent of the population. It expects two-thirds of the households
which receive mailed census forms next March to return them, and
Census 2000 workers will then try to contact those who haven't
responded.
But getting that last 10 percent of the population to reply is
where problems arise. To address the issue of undercounting, the
Census Bureau some time ago proposed using a nationwide sampling
technique of 750,000 households to verify its figures. But the
U.S. Supreme Court struck down that idea.
For federal funding distribution purposes, the agency now wants
to re-interview 300,000 households after the original census.
Local communities would then be given the choice of selecting
the first "head count" number or the second, revised
figure as its population.
But that approach still leaves unanswered the question of how
to accurately count everyone. Adolfo Echeveste, manager of the
Census Bureau's South Phoenix office, which includes the Tucson
area, says they're using a number of initiatives to address the
undercounting problem.
These efforts include encouraging historically undercounted groups,
like Native Americans, to be involved in the census planning processs.
Echeveste also says school programs will promote the importance
of the population count.
Meanwhile in Washington, D.C., the method of counting people
next year has become a political football. Republicans are supporting
the concept of a 100 percent head count, while Democrats favor
using sampling to ensure more accurate figures. Republicans are
charged with trying to exclude those mostly poor and minority
populations which are traditionally left out, while Democrats
are accused of trying to establish a counting system which could
be politically manipulated.
Tucson Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe wants to see the exclusive
head count approach retained because he doesn't believe in the
impartiality of sampling. He thinks there could be possibilities
for abuse. But he doesn't have a solution for the undercounting
problems which have plagued Tucson in the past.
Republican Senator John McCain is also concerned about the potential
for a Tucson undercount again. But like Kolbe, he doesn't offer
solutions.
While the political bickering continued, 184 hastily trained
temporary Census Bureau employees recently were sent out across
Pima County. Their job was to verify addresses supplied by the
Post Office as one early step in preparing for Census 2000.
These people learned a lesson about the Census Bureau during
their three-day training period: it's very sensitive about its
public image. One class heard a plea to forward any press contacts
to the appropriate public relations people. This request was made
while a self-identified writer for The Weekly sat
in the room.
That writer was later asked to show his story to Census Bureau
officials before it was printed so they could verify that confidentiality
rules had not been violated. The writer pointed out that would
be censorship, something else addressed in the Constitution.
The goal of the address verification process was to ensure the
accuracy of the mailing list on which much of next year's head
count depends. Echeveste of the Census Bureau believes the revised
mailing list may be up to 99 percent accurate.
But those who scoured Tucson's neighborhoods in March encountered
several problems in addition to security doors without doorbells
coming as standard operating equipment on many homes. Some found
the central city area dotted with housing units which have no
addresses because the structures were built without building permits,
or because different households share a mailbox. They also found
that despite their best efforts, it was impossible to identify
all of these units. Which means some people in Tucson might not
even get a census form next year.
These short-term employees were also hamstrung by constantly
changing directions about how to do their jobs. They had to deal
with personal squabbles between their immediate supervisors and
Census Bureau higher-ups. In addition, the initial address information
they were given was often confusing and far from accurate.
Despite these problems, the process toward mailing out census
forms next March continues on. It's safe to assume that Tucson
officials will complain about having an undercounted population
when figures are released in a few years.
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