A UA Scientist Thinks India And Pakistan Engaged In A Bit Of Puffery About The Size Of their Atomic Weapons.
By Dave Irwin
ACCORDING TO University of Arizona scientist Terry Wallace,
India and Pakistan just barely qualify to join the fraternity
of Nations with Nukes, but they each deserve full voting privileges
in the Liars Club.
Wallace, a seismologist in the Geosciences Department, recently
published a study of the seismic data from the underground nuclear
tests conducted in May, first by India and then by Pakistan.
Those tests sent shockwaves throughout the Indian subcontinent
and around the world, with concerns over stability for the region
with the two longtime adversaries going nuclear.
Research by Wallace and others, however, challenges the veracity
of both governments regarding the sizes of the nuclear devices
exploded and how successful the tests really were.
The government of India announced on May 11 that it had exploded
three nuclear devices, including a fission-type bomb with a yield
of 12 kilotons (a kiloton yield is the equivalent explosive power
of 2 million pounds of TNT; the fission bomb that destroyed Hiroshima
was approximately 15 kT), as well as a more sophisticated thermonuclear
or fusion-type bomb with a 45-50 kT yield.
On May 13, India claimed to have exploded two additional, smaller
devices. The move to join the exclusive group of nuclear countries
(U.S., Russia, China, France and England) was part of recently
elected Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata
Party platform. The BJP has had steady gains in Indian politics
over the years thanks to its increasingly shrill and jingoistic
pro-India program. By going nuclear, Vajpayee hoped to demonstrate
India's rightful place as a major power, as well as scare the
bejesus out of his neighbors in China and Pakistan.
Backed into a corner by his own nationalist politics and sense
of rivalry, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif responded by
going nuclear as well. On May 28, Pakistan announced it had exploded
two, three or five nuclear devices, depending on who you talked
to at the time, the largest with a yield of 40-45 kT. On May 30,
it exploded what it then claimed was its sixth device, in the
15-18 kT range.
However, according to Wallace, an expert on verification of nuclear
explosions, it ain't necessarily so. Writing in the September
issue of Seismic Research Letters, he reported that a detailed
study of the seismologic evidence gathered at geological reporting
stations around the world give a very different picture.
His calculations show that the three May 11 Indian tests had
a sum total yield in the 10-15 kT range, much less than the stated
yield of the 45-50 kT fusion device. If the three devices detonated
simultaneously, a standard procedure to minimize costs, the yield
would have been a sum of all the explosions. If exploded individually,
the largest explosion would be visible on the seismic evidence.
Further analysis, according to Wallace, doesn't show evidence
of multiple explosions. So, Wallace concedes diplomatically, perhaps
we don't understand what the Indians mean when they talk about
yields. However, the other possibilities are that the Indian
government simply lied about the number and size of explosions,
or that the May 11 test went "pop" instead of "kerrrblam!!"
"We are very certain our yield estimates are very accurate,"
Wallace said from his office at the UA. "We've had at least
three different groups now that have worked on this, and their
numbers are all very consistent, even using different methodologies."
Wallace was also among 19 co-authors from around the world for
an article on the test results in the September 25 issue of Science
magazine.
The May 13 tests make Wallace nervous, at least from a political
science standpoint. Having studied nuclear issues for some 25
years, he has become an expert in the politics of nuclear treaties
and the thinking behind various test scenarios.
"The 0.6 kT number, the reason people are concerned is that
when you get that small, sometimes those are air-to-surface tactical
weapons," he said. "If they actually have a deliverable
tactical weapon, that would represent a huge step forward. We
know that it couldn't have been more than 50 tons."
That means India was likely testing a tactical battlefield weapon,
something to strap on a cannon shell or a missile.
The May 28 Pakistani tests were so muddled that its government,
through various statements, was unable to even decide on how many
bombs it exploded.
"The Pakistanis made three different announcements on how
many devices they tested," Wallace notes. "They don't
have an official story that anybody can vet." He says that
however many they blew up, the yield was only a total of 9-12
kT, nowhere near the stated 30-35 kT. The May 30 test was probably
4-6 kT.
"You have to ask the question, 'what do you gain from this?'
" Wallace says. "Going back to the May 11 test, you
have to ask, was this a thermonuclear device? At 12-18 kT, you
may still be able to have a thermonuclear device, but why would
you do that? You have to look at everything that was done here
through a political lens."
WALLACE SAYS his information has gotten much bigger play
in Europe, where he recently returned from a conference. Virtually
ignored at home, he made headlines on the BBC and other foreign
news networks.
"Europe is more aware of nuclear issues and being anti-nuclear,"
Wallace explained. "The countries there are moving much more
rapidly towards trying to ratify and implement the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
In the U.S., it has not been nearly as big a deal. Part of that
is due to the fact that America is the biggest nuclear weapons
state that's left, and the issue seems to generate less public
concern. The uncertainty with our own government on nuclear weapons
treaties and arms control right now is making it a very mixed
message. The CTBT was first proposed by Eisenhower in 1955. So
we finally get to this point and we realize we're the only superpower
left and they're wondering in Washington, why does the U.S. need
this treaty? Arms control is only desirable when you have a major
opponent on the other side."
Treaty enforcement is what first drew Wallace into the area of
seismological verification. The 1976 Limited Threshold Test Ban
Treaty restricted tests to less than 150 kT, but verification
was difficult. Wallace's subsequent doctoral dissertation was
on verification issues.
Now recognized as an expert on interpreting seismic signals,
Wallace spends most of his time with earthquakes, since the last
prior nuclear tests were a limited series done by the French in
1996.
"When you try to understand the seismic signal, you want
to understand the science behind it," he said. "When
you get into the issue of yield, you get into complicated test
scenarios. But it turns out that seismology is a pretty good microscope."
In response to Wallace's findings of exaggerated nuclear claims,
the press office at the Indian Embassy in Washington's only reply
was, "I do not think we will have very much to say about
that." Further calls were not returned.
In a rare show of solidarity, the Pakistani Embassy said virtually
the same thing. "As far as we are concerned, we stick to
our initial announcement," Information Minister Malik Ahmed
stated. "If people have second thoughts or different views,
we cannot stop that."
Although the underground tests produced no atmospheric radiation,
there has been plenty of political fallout. Both India and Pakistan
have been shaken by the withdrawal of aid and investment by countries
around the world. While many Indians celebrated with gleeful national
pride, opposition to the tenuous hold of the BJP in India has
also strengthened. Pakistan, its weaker economy more heavily hit
by the sanctions, could collapse without outside help. Compounding
the problems in Pakistan, reports in the London Observer
have accused Prime Minister Sharif of misappropriating funds and
have reported that the army has considered a coup. In any case,
neither country can afford the cost of a new arms race, much less
the cost of world censure.
Both Prime Ministers Vajpayee and Shafir, each addressing the
United Nations recently, indicated hey are now willing to reopen
discussions on signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. However,
President Clinton's planned visit to the region to discuss weapons
and trade issues, scheduled for this month, has been cancelled.
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