Will The GOP Finish Off The Democrats This Year?
By Jim Nintzel
ARIZONA IS LOSING one of its finest, brightest elected officials
this year. Renz Jennings, a victim of term limits, is stepping
down after 12 years on the state's Corporation Commission.
Jennings, as it happens, is also the sole Democrat holding a
statewide office in Arizona. The GOP swept all the other offices
in 1994 for the first time in state history.
But the Democrats hope to make a comeback this year--and the
party has managed to assemble a slate of candidates while avoiding
any divisive primaries.
The Republicans, on the other hand, have a bunch of primaries,
ranging from the juicy attorney general's race to the absurd governor's
race).
A brief sketch of the upcoming contests:
Governor
TAKING OFFICE following J. Fife Symington III's disgraced resignation, Gov.
Jane Dee Hull seemed close to a triple-digit approval rating.
Those numbers scared off potential GOP challengers one-by-one.
The last to surrender hope was Republican Congressman Matt Salmon,
who was briefly recruited by Fife's government-in-exile, which
had a beef about Hull's lack of conservative convictions. (And
there's one thing you can say about Fife: He's a man of conviction.)
But Salmon quickly realized it was too late to raise money for
a splintering primary, and Hull embraced conservative principles
by vetoing a bill which made it illegal to transport minors like
potato sacks in the backs of pickup trucks.
For all the complaints from the hard right, Hull enjoys a high
approval rating among voters, according a June poll conducted
by Phoenix TV station KAET, which showed 76 percent of Democrats
and 73 percent of Republicans approve of her job performance.
Those numbers mean Hull probably doesn't have much to worry about
from her two challengers in the GOP primary, Mesa resident Charles
Brown and Phoenician Jim Howl, a former TV weatherman
who lost his job over some allegations about sexual harassment.
It's a safe bet Hull will clobber both opponents to face Democrat
Paul Johnson, the former Phoenix mayor who lost a three-way
Demo primary in the 1994 governor's race.
Hull enjoys a considerable financial advantage in that race,
having raised almost $1.1 million compared to Johnson's $359,000.
An early KAET-TV poll, taken in November 1997, showed Hull led
Johnson by a 2-to-1 margin, with 55 percent of voters supporting
Hull and only 27 percent backing Johnson. (Another 32 percent
were still undecided.) A more recent poll, taken in May at the
close of the Legislative session, found that both Hull and Johnson
had lost points, with Hull at 48 percent and Johnson at 20 percent,
while 32 percent of the electorate remained undecided.
Can Johnson close the gap? He's pulled off surprise wins in the
past. He won a Phoenix City Council seat at age 25 and was elected
mayor by the time he was 30.
And then there's the potential spoiler: Tom Rawles, a
former Maricopa County supervisor who flirted with a run against
Hull in the GOP primary, has jumped into the race as a Libertarian.
If he can get past fellow Libertarian Kat Gallant for the
third party's nomination, he could be a potential protest vote
for conservatives unhappy with Hull. The May poll also showed
that, in a three-way race, Rawles picked up the support of 6 percent
of voters surveyed, Hull dropped several points to 44 percent,
and Johnson climbed to 22 percent.
Reform Party candidate Scott Malcomson will also appear
on the November ballot.
Attorney General
IN WHAT COULD turn out to be the meanest statewide primary, state
Sen. John Kaites is facing Tom McGovern, a deputy
to Attorney General Grant Woods, who is stepping down after two
terms.
Although the Attorney General's Office handles many civil issues
for the state, expect both campaigns to play the much sexier crime
card. During the recent legislative session, Kaites introduced
legislation that would have locked up child molesters for
life. Not to be outdone, McGovern announced he thought they should
be put to death. More recently, McGovern's campaign recently released
a videotape in which he expounded at length about his eagerness
to kill Arizona's death-row population. By the end of August,
at least one of the candidates may be promising to lock up jaywalkers.
As of May 31, Kaites had been more successful raising money for
the race, with more than $216,000. McGovern, meanwhile, had raised
about $180,000. Both have enough to money to wage strong campaigns.
Kaites' fundraising efforts came under investigation when he
raised almost $150,000 last year for an "exploratory
campaign." (Had he actually declared himself a candidate,
Kaites would have had to give up his Senate seat under Arizona's
resign-to-run law.) McGovern filed a formal complaint, alleging
Kaites had violated campaign laws by putting together such a large
warchest before formally beginning his campaign. The special investigator
eventually ruled Kaites had bent but not broken any laws.
So there's the GOP's choice for Arizona's top legal post: the
state lawmaker who skirts campaign law, or the high-level AG deputy
who doesn't hesitate to use the power of the state to launch witchhunts
against his political opponent.
The real winner of the GOP primary, particularly if the race
turns nasty, could be Democratic candidate Janet Napolitano,
who will face the Republican nominee. The former U.S. Attorney
for Arizona, Napolitano is one of the Democrats' best hopes for
the November ballot. She's already raised more than $269,000 and
won't need to spend any of it in a primary fight.
A May KAET poll showed Napolitano lagging behind both potential
GOP nominees. In a Kaites-Napolitano race, 34 percent of those
surveyed said they'd vote for Kaites, while 28 percent supported
Napolitano. (38 percent were still undecided). The numbers were
similar in a McGovern-Napolitano race, with 33 percent supporting
the Republican, 29 percent supporting the Democrat and 38 percent
undecided.
Secretary of State
THE SECRETARY OF State is essentially Arizona's chief record-keeper.
The office tracks state laws and maintains campaign records.
But as we've seen time and again in Arizona, it's also one step
away from the Governor's chair.
Incumbent Betsey Bayless, the former Maricopa County supervisor
who was appointed to her current post by Hull after she took the
Governor's chair, is running her first statewide race. She's already
raised $160,000 to campaign.
Bayless is facing former Phoenix City Councilwoman Francis
Emma Barwood, whose name recognition skyrocketed after she
began demanding an investigation into those strange lights that
floated over Phoenix last summer. Barwood had raised only about
$15,000--some $10,600 of which was floating around from a previous
election. (Inside tip: TW house psychic Stella Sabrina
tells us the vast alien conspiracy that pulls all the strings
won't allow Barwood to reach a high position like Secretary of
State, where she might be in a position to really blow the lid
off the truth.)
The GOP nominee could face a tough contest against Art Hamilton,
who has served in the state House of Representatives for the last
26 years. The House minority leader, Hamilton is a sharp politician
and a talented orator. And Democrats have faired well with the
Secretary of State's Office, holding it for 24 of the last 28
years.
But Hamilton trails in the fundraising race: By May 31, he'd
collected $31,523 and spent $20,076, leaving him with $11,447.
Treasurer
THE PRIMARY responsibility of the Treasurer's Office is to manage somewhere
in the neighborhood of $6 billion in state assets--which is a
whole lot of money, with a whole lot of related commissions for
the various brokers who get to handle it.
With incumbent Treasurer Tony West seeking a spot on the Corporation
Commission, the open office has attracted two Republican candidates.
Since no Democrats made the ballot for this post, the winner of
the GOP primary will easily win the seat in November.
State Sen. Carol Springer is facing D.L. Culliver,
a former Maricopa County car dealer.
Springer, who represents the Prescott and Springerville area,
developed a reputation as budget hawk during her years in the
Legislature. Culliver, meanwhile, says running a large car dealership
gave him extensive experience at handling large sums of money.
Experience aside, Springer has a definite financial disadvantage
in the race--as of May, she'd raised less than $33,000, while
Culliver had more than $169,000, which includes $150,000 of his
own money. Culliver admits he may well spend more on the race
than he'll earn in four years in office--all to satisfy a deep
need to serve the people of Arizona. He says he hopes to not only
manage the state's coffers, but also to use the office to attract
high-paying jobs and promote family values.
Corporation Commission
THE THREE-MEMBER Arizona Corporation Commission regulates the
state's businesses. As part of that responsibility, the Corporation
Commission oversees utilities, which, in the past, has meant they
essentially served as a watchdog when those monopolistic utilities
have asked for rate increases.
That utility-oversight role will become even more vital as the
21st century approaches and we navigate the brave new world of
competition between electric companies, as well as the transformation
of phone companies into multi-media cyberglomerates.
As we mentioned earlier, Arizona's term-limit laws are preventing
Democrat Renz Jennings from seeking another term on the Commission.
At this point, the Commission is badly fractured. Republican Jim
Irvin, who spent more than $100,000 of his own money to win the
seat two years ago, has recently allied himself Jennings, which
has infuriated Commissioner Carl Kunasek.
Both Irvin and Kunasek have allies seeking the GOP nomination:
Irvin's candidate is Gary Carnicle, while Kunasek is backing
Tony West, who is leaving his post as state treasurer to
seek the GOP nomination. West has raised about $30,000 for his
campaign, including $15,000 from himself. Carnicle, meanwhile,
seems to be taking a page from Irvin--he's put $150,000 of his
own money into the race, bringing his warchest to about $153,000.
The Republican nominee will face Democrat Paul Newman,
who has represented Cochise County in the state House of Representatives
for six years.
Newman has raised only $5,700 and has little name recognition
statewide, but he may have an edge: Even many Republicans are
reluctant to give the GOP complete control over a consumer regulatory
authority like the Corporation Commission.
AS FOR THE other two statewide offices: State Superintendent of
Public Instruction Lisa Graham Keegan and Mining Inspector
Doug Martin are both cruising back to re-election unopposed.
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