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Wealthy Republican Launches Multi-Million-Dollar Air War To Win GOP Presidential Primary.
By Jim Nintzel
STEVE FORBES IS back on our television screens.
The multimillionaire publishing heir returned to Arizona airwaves
last week as part of a national campaign to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2000.
Forbes spent tens of thousands of dollars statewide in the first
week of the campaign, with plans to spend plenty more in the months
to come. Nationwide, Forbes is expected to spend about $2 million
in the next few weeks, primarily in four states: Arizona, New
Hampshire, Iowa and California. Over the summer, projected campaign
expenditures are an estimated $10 million, primarily designed
to cast Forbes in a new light.
Hank Kenski, Southern Arizona regional director for Sen. Jon
Kyl's office and an associate professor in the UA Communications
Department, says that Forbes needs to overcome two perception
problems with the public: first, that he's not presidential; and
second, that he has a platform beyond the flat tax.
"He's trying to get people to see him as presidential and
electable," says Kenski. "The campaign is targeted for
certain television stations, it's targeted for talk radio, it's
targeted for high-propensity voters with direct mail. It's well
thought-out. Whether it works or not remains to be seen. But given
where he's at, running 4 or 5 percent nationally, he's doing what
he has to do to try to change those numbers."
The campaign is the brainchild of William Eisner, owner of a
Milwaukee advertising agency best known for a campaign to resuscitate
Mrs. Paul's fish sticks. "He apparently does very creative
and quirky stuff. He's been very successful in product advertising,"
says Kenski.
It's the first time a presidential candidate has spent this much
money this early in a campaign.
But Forbes wasn't hesitant to open up his checkbook during his
first campaign in 1996. In the weeks leading up to Arizona's February
27 primary, Forbes spent between $3.5 million and $4 million across
the state to capture the biggest win of his campaign. He took
about one-third of the vote and won Maricopa County. Bob Dole
received about 28 percent, winning Pima County, and Pat Buchanan
placed third with 26 percent, winning rural Arizona.
"This time, we will build on our victory in 1996 with a
full-fledged grassroots campaign," promises Bert Coleman,
one of seven campaign staffers in Phoenix. "That's one of
the reasons we're starting these ads so early--to continue building
what you must have in present-day presidential politics: a very
strong grass-roots organization."
Forbes is lining up support from Southern Arizona Republicans.
Longtime political campaign worker Jackie Egan is assisting the
effort. State Rep. Bill McGibbon has signed on as Southern Arizona
chairman, while one source tells The Weekly that state
Sen. Keith Bee will be chairing the Pima County campaign.
Since his 1996 campaign, Forbes has been moving to the right,
courting social conservatives. "He's shifted, without question,"
Kenski says. "He's aware of the fact that there's a substantial
group in the Republican party that is very concerned with social
issues."
But Forbes is facing a different field from the one he did in
'96. Among his opponents:
- Arizona Sen. John McCain, who postponed formally announcing
his campaign when NATO began bombing in the Balkans. The stakes
in Arizona are high for McCain. An embarrassing loss in his home
state could finish his campaign.
Kenski sees McCain, who enjoys high popularity levels in Arizona
and good relations with the Beltway press, establishing himself
as a maverick in the Republican Party.
"There are risks there, because you're trying to win a party
nomination and if you're wrong on Kosovo for a majority of party
members, if you're wrong on tobacco tax, if you're wrong on campaign
finance reform, it may well be that you do a lot better with independents
and loosely attached voters, but I'm not sure you're going to
endear yourself to party partisans," says Kenski, whose boss,
Kyl, is co-chairing the McCain campaign.
- Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the sudden darling of the Republican
Party, enjoys a substantial lead in early polls, although he has
yet to stake out positions on major issues.
"I personally think it's Bush's to lose," says Kenski.
"But he's not been out there being tested. He's not taking
strong issue positions right now. But he does have name recognition--a
good Republican family name. And he does have the image of having
been an effective governor in Texas on issues like education and
crime and taxes and juvenile justice."
- Likewise, Elizabeth Dole, wife of 1996 GOP nominee Bob
Dole, is enjoying an early burst of popularity among voters nationwide.
But her lack of experience in the political field may prove a
liability as the race tightens.
- Pat Buchanan is making his third run for the White House.
But Kenski says this time around his message may be blunted by
a strong economy--assuming the economy remains strong.
"Buchanan hasn't changed," Kenski says. "He's
very committed to his principles. His positions are fairly well
known. There will be a constituency for that, but it might be
hard for him to broaden the base if the economy is good. Buchanan
still may do in the rural areas, (with) that anti-establishment,
anti-free-trade, anti-immigration constituency."
- Former Vice-President Dan Quayle, who is now an Arizona
resident, is struggling in his fundraising efforts.
- And then there are GOP politicos who have yet to take
off: former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, conservative activist
Gary Bauer and former radio talk-show host Alan Keyes.
"A lot of these people are competing for the same folks,"
observes Kenski. "You've got Bauer, Buchanan, Quayle and
now Forbes trying to eat into that. You've got Keyes picking up
a little bit. They're all going after the same market."
An ABC/Washington Post poll released earlier this month
showed 49 percent of registered voters nationwide favored Bush
and 20 percent favored Dole. The rest of the pack remained mired
in single digits, with 5 percent supporting McCain and 4 percent
supporting Forbes, Buchanan and Quayle.
Meanwhile, polls of Arizona voters show many are undecided. An
April Rocky Mountain Poll showed that Bush was the leading Republican
candidate in Arizona with about 31 percent of the vote, up 10
percentage points from a similar poll in January. McCain, meanwhile,
had dropped about 3 points to 23 percent. Dole was running at
12 percent, Forbes at 7 percent, Quayle at 4 percent and Buchanan
at 3 percent. Twenty percent were undecided.
A January KAET poll showed 56 percent of voters had yet to settle
on a candidate, 14 percent supported McCain, 8 percent supported
Dole, 7 percent supported Bush, 3 percent supported Quayle and
2 percent supported Forbes.
But Kenski says poll numbers this early are fluid, particularly
when the pollsters don't limit their questions to likely voters.
"None of these polls look at likely voters," says Kenski,
who predicts the Arizona primary will come down to a race among
McCain, Bush and Forbes, if the latter's advertising campaign
is successful in lifting his numbers. "Likely voters are
more attentive, more interested, often more ideological. The other
factor might be how effective the campaigns are at identifying
their voters and getting them out."
IN OTHER PRESIDENTIAL primary news, former U.S. Sen. Bill
Bradley, the only serious candidate challenging VP Al Gore in
the Democratic primary, will be visiting Tucson later this month.
Pima County Democratic Chairman Jesse George says Bradley will
talk about Social Security, health care and the importance of
Arizona in presidential politics.
Bradley will speak at a luncheon benefit for the Arizona Democratic
Party on Thursday, June 24, at the Doubletree Hotel, 445 S. Alvernon
Way. Tickets cost $50. For more information call 326-3716.
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