Sinema is running for the Senate seat now held by Republican Jeff Flake—but it remains to be seen whether she'll actually face Flake, whose tangles with Trump and other heresies (comprehensive immigration reform, free trade) have created real problems with the GOP base. He's facing Kelli Ward (with other candidates considering a run against him) and this week's Alabama GOP Senate results show once again that the advantage of incumbency is no sure thing in a GOP primary.